Tickers: $NTDOY, $GME, $AMZN, $CMG, $NFLX
Key Takeaways:
NTDOY Switch
  • The Switch is in high demand for the holidays, attach rates have improved, and owners want more games for the Switch compared to owners of the PS4 and Xbox One.
  • Takeaway: Confirming the thesis/sentiment around demand for the Switch being strong through the holidays (and showing all-important traction improvement for Switch games).

Digital Video Game Share Stalls, Then Falls 

  • For the first time in our survey, the market share of purchases being digital fell. Top complaints about digital is storage limits on consoles.
  • Takeaway: Digital games are still a threat and gamers like them/engage with them, but this data shows the threat calming down (likely due to limitations in storage). This would be a positive for video game retailers.

Video Game Engagement Slide Continues

  • Purchases of the top 25 available PS4 and Xbox One games available each quarter continued their non-cyclical slide. Respondents paying fewer titles per year for the first time in our series.
  • Takeaway: An overhang for the sector and for retailers (mitigating the positive impact of digital share gains stalling).

AMZN Gives Back Some Mind Share It Had Gained From GME

  • Amazon gave back some of the mindshare it had picked up from GameStop in our series previously (though It is still a threat and 20% off for Prime Members is still impactful).
  • Takeaway: Another positive for retailers (specifically GameStop), though it isn’t clear yet if it is a short-term or long-term tailwind.

CMG Traffic Still Down, But Not Getting Worse 

  • Monthly traffic is still lower than pre-food safety levels 2 and 3 years ago, but comes in marginally better compared to the same time in 2016.
  • Takeaway: The data isn’t calling a positive inflection, but continues to look like the traffic declines have at least found a bottom.

CMG Queso Reviews Mixed, But Not As Bad As Social Media Feedback Suggests 

  • Our survey is showing higher attach rates than CMG discussed and though feedback from those who tried it is mixed, it doesn’t look quite as bad as social media feedback might suggest.
  • Takeaway: The data isn’t calling a positive inflection, but continues to look like the traffic declines have at least found a bottom.

NFLX Net Adds Beating Seasonality 

  • Net adds are positive and have looked better seasonally through 2017 compared to 2016.
  • Takeaway: Suggests there is still room for growth for NFLX in the US despite already high penetration rates (smart TV and streaming set-top box proliferation is a tailwind).

 

NFLX Price Sensitivity and ARPU Implications

  • Our data suggests that a plurality of paying subscribers would cancel at $15.00.
  • Takeaway: While the goalposts can move when the increases actually happen / if more subscribers move to skinny bundle, this data is useful for setting ARPU expectations as Netflix rolls out more price increases.

Furniture Purchases a Rising Tide 

  • Furniture purchases improve an have shown non-cyclical improvement over-time (supported by non-cyclical increases in plans to move / renovate).
  • Takeaway: A rising tide that could lift boats.

Online Dating Paid Engagement Increases 

  • Willingness to pay for online dating services continues to increase
  • Takeaway: A net positive development for players in the space.

Tinder Gaining Popularity 

  • Tinder is the clear share winner in our tracker; Match, Plenty of Fish, and OK Cupid have slid in popularity.
  • Takeaway: Despite its slide in popularity in our survey, Match stands to benefit from the increased popularity of its Tinder property.

PLCE On the Online Trend 

  • Parents indicated an increase in preferences to shop for childen’s clothes online, and Children’s Place customers show a higher percentage of their customers shopping online compared to online to in-store mix at Wal-Mart, Target, and Old Navy.
  • Takeaway: Wal-Mart, Target, and Old Navy have bigger market share but PLCE is on-trend with its online presence.

New Kids Mean New Clothes 

  • The biggest catalyst driving children’s clothing purchases is having a new baby.
  • Takeaway: This may not come as a surprise, but it is a good reason to pay attention to census data and changes to birth rates.