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In our latest Gambling survey, we asked a targeted question to respondents who participated in Super Bowl betting:
Why did you use prediction markets instead of putting that money through traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel?
The Super Bowl provided an early, high-engagement test case for recently launched prediction products from DraftKings, FanDuel, and Robinhood, making it a natural moment to ask this question.
The responses reveal a few clear — and in some cases surprising — themes.
Value Comes First
- Among Super Bowl bettors who chose prediction markets, economic value was the dominant reason.
- Mentions of better odds, better payouts, or simply “more value” appeared more frequently than any other explanation. For these respondents, prediction markets weren’t about entertainment or experimentation — they were a deliberate choice based on perceived economics during a high-profile betting event.
Simplicity and Clarity Matter
- After value, ease and clarity emerged as important secondary drivers.
- Some respondents described prediction markets as: a) Easier to understand, b) More straightforward in how outcomes resolve, and c) Less complex than navigating spreads, parlays, or other sportsbook bet types.
- In the context of the Super Bowl, this suggests that lower-friction decision-making resonates with a subset of bettors.
Trust and Familiarity Play a Role
- Trust and comfort also appeared in responses, particularly where prediction products were associated with familiar brands or platforms.
- Brand recognition and perceived legitimacy helped reduce friction, making it easier for respondents to allocate some Super Bowl betting dollars outside of traditional sportsbook apps.
Legality Was an Edge Case, Not a Core Driver
- We also looked closely for mentions of legality — the idea that bettors chose prediction markets because sports betting is not legal in their state.
- While this did come up in a small number of responses, it was far less common than expected.
- Instead, legality appeared as an edge use case, well behind value, simplicity, and trust. The data suggests that prediction markets are not primarily being used as a workaround during the Super Bowl, but rather as a selective alternative where bettors believe the structure works in their favor.
How Prediction Platforms Showed Up in the Data
- DraftKings Predictions & FanDuel Predicts: Performed better than expected across awareness, trust, and recommendation, benefiting from brand familiarity and sportsbook adjacency.
- Robinhood: Stands out on familiarity and comfort, with awareness exceeding several standalone prediction platforms despite limited differentiation.
- Kalshi: Skews toward users focused on simplicity and clear outcomes rather than entertainment.
- Polymarket: Appeals more to users who value market structure and tradability, with narrower but more deliberate usage.