The Set-Up:
AAPL is trading near all-time highs and expectations have been lofty for the upcoming iPhone 12 launch.
Thesis Based Questions:
1. Will financial distress caused by Covid and “shelter-in-place” / social distancing create an unexpected headwind?
2. In China, will rising negative sentiment toward US / China relations impact demand for the iPhone 12?
Evidence | What We Found:
- There is a cohort of consumers who are already saying they were interested in getting the iPhone 12 but will probably not because of Covid and financial stress. Even among those who say they will probably or definitely get it, ~70% say Covid and financial stress might/will impact the amount they spend.
- Negative sentiment toward US/China relations has been steadily rising among consumers in China. Our data suggests the biggest impact will be in the form of it becoming harder to win Android users over during the next upgrade cycle (ie, Android owners who say US/China relations are good are meaningfully more likely to say they intend to get an iPhone next compared to those who say relations are bad).
Charts:
